{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12fv4027gp658xo3w2bau", "ticker": "ARES", "snapshotId": "cmnr12fvn027ip658jt9nxi69", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.117Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12fvn027ip658jt9nxi69", "assetId": "cmnr12fv4027gp658xo3w2bau", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 104.83, "dayLow": 100.25, "volume": 5543513, "dayHigh": 109.49, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 102.24, "week52Low": 95.8, "week52High": 195.26 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": null, "beta": 1.46951246120348, "epsTTM": null, "fcfTTM": 3171604000, "growth": { "epsYoy": null, "revenueYoy": 0.2885520995115247 }, "sector": "Investment Advice", "margins": { "net": 0.1108924223938929, "gross": null, "operating": 0.3836958729654064 }, "website": "http://www.aresmgmt.com", "industry": "Asset Management", "pegRatio": null, "ebitdaTTM": 835537000, "forwardPe": 24.7519142419602, "marketCap": 326653262, "totalCash": 488896000, "totalDebt": 3941415000, "debtEquity": 0.921868578911804, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 4755618000, "companyName": "Ares Management Corp", "priceToBook": null, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.01841774190106655, "returnOnEquity": 0.123346173268252, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Ares Management Corporation is a global alternative investment manager operating in the credit, private equity and real estate markets. The company was founded in 1997, with additional offices across North America, Europe, and Asia.", "enterpriseValue": null, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 4200, "sharesOutstanding": 103332418, "enterpriseToEbitda": null, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": null, "operatingCashflowTTM": 3266959000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.099Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12fwa027mp658f1942zn5", "runId": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ARES\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":104.83,\"target_price_6m\":114.5,\"target_price_12m\":126.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Stock trades ~46% below 52-week high, creating potential entry point\",\"Strong 28.9% YoY revenue growth with robust operating margins near 38%\",\"Alternative asset management industry benefits from secular AUM tailwinds\",\"High beta of 1.47 amplifies downside risk in volatile macro environment\",\"Forward P/E of ~24.8x reasonable if double-digit earnings growth persists\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM fundraising momentum and fee-related earnings growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit market expansion driving management fee base\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Macroeconomic slowdown / recession risk compressing valuations\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate trajectory affecting credit and real estate strategies\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Performance fee realization from maturing vintage funds\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Debt load of $3.9B with 0.92x D/E limiting financial flexibility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Private equity deal activity recovery post-rate cycle\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee margin sustainability amid competitive alt-manager landscape\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged equity/credit market downturn reducing AUM and incentive fees\",\"Higher-for-longer rates pressuring leveraged portfolio valuations\",\"Key personnel departures impacting fundraising relationships\",\"Regulatory changes targeting private credit or alternative fund structures\",\"Liquidity stress in credit book during recessionary scenario\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.14,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.37,\"wacc\":0.11,\"terminal_multiple\":23},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":84,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Recession drives AUM outflows, performance fees collapse, multiple compresses to ~18x.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":126,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Steady AUM growth, fee earnings up mid-teens, re-rating toward ~24x forward earnings.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":162,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong fundraising cycle, performance fees recover, multiple expands to ~28x on growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended forward P/E and FCF-yield approach for alt asset manager. Forward EPS ~$4.23 implied; assume 15-18% EPS growth yields ~$4.90 12M fwd. Base target at ~25-26x fwd P/E. High beta and macro uncertainty cap confidence at 0.58. Market cap in snapshot appears understated vs shares × price (~$10.8B computed); used snapshot as-is per rules. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged equity/credit market downturn reducing AUM and incentive fees", "Higher-for-longer rates pressuring leveraged portfolio valuations", "Key personnel departures impacting fundraising relationships", "Regulatory changes targeting private credit or alternative fund structures", "Liquidity stress in credit book during recessionary scenario" ], "ticker": "ARES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady AUM growth, fee earnings up mid-teens, re-rating toward ~24x forward earnings.", "target_price": 126 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Recession drives AUM outflows, performance fees collapse, multiple compresses to ~18x.", "target_price": 84 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong fundraising cycle, performance fees recover, multiple expands to ~28x on growth.", "target_price": 162 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.14, "terminal_multiple": 23, "ebit_margin_target": 0.37 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM fundraising momentum and fee-related earnings growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit market expansion driving management fee base", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic slowdown / recession risk compressing valuations", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate trajectory affecting credit and real estate strategies", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Performance fee realization from maturing vintage funds", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt load of $3.9B with 0.92x D/E limiting financial flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Private equity deal activity recovery post-rate cycle", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee margin sustainability amid competitive alt-manager landscape", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended forward P/E and FCF-yield approach for alt asset manager. Forward EPS ~$4.23 implied; assume 15-18% EPS growth yields ~$4.90 12M fwd. Base target at ~25-26x fwd P/E. High beta and macro uncertainty cap confidence at 0.58. Market cap in snapshot appears understated vs shares × price (~$10.8B computed); used snapshot as-is per rules. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 104.83, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Stock trades ~46% below 52-week high, creating potential entry point", "Strong 28.9% YoY revenue growth with robust operating margins near 38%", "Alternative asset management industry benefits from secular AUM tailwinds", "High beta of 1.47 amplifies downside risk in volatile macro environment", "Forward P/E of ~24.8x reasonable if double-digit earnings growth persists" ], "target_price_6m": 114.5, "target_price_12m": 126 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 52228, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.117Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3479, "outputTokens": 2066, "costUsd": 0.069045 } }, { "id": "cmnr12fwa027pp658jvi12epw", "runId": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Ares_Analysis_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ARES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 104.83,\n \"target_price_6m\": 112.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 118.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong AUM growth driving revenue increases.\",\n \"High operating margins from stable fee income.\",\n \"Diversified global platform reducing geographic risk.\",\n \"Exposed to market cycles and economic downturns.\",\n \"Leverage amplifies returns but increases risk.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"AUM Growth Rate\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Fee Revenue Stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market Performance\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Environment\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Changes\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\"Market volatility reducing AUM\", \"Increased regulatory scrutiny\", \"High debt levels increasing financial risk\", \"Global economic slowdown\", \"Currency exchange rate fluctuations\"],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.38,\n \"wacc\": 0.1,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 95.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Recession leads to AUM decline and lower fees.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 118.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate growth with stable market conditions.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 140.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong market rally and significant AUM inflows.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation via simplified DCF with growth and margin assumptions. Market cap in snapshot appears low vs. calculated; using snapshot values. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Ares_Analysis_Model", "risks": [ "Market volatility reducing AUM", "Increased regulatory scrutiny", "High debt levels increasing financial risk", "Global economic slowdown", "Currency exchange rate fluctuations" ], "ticker": "ARES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate growth with stable market conditions.", "target_price": 118 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Recession leads to AUM decline and lower fees.", "target_price": 95 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong market rally and significant AUM inflows.", "target_price": 140 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.1, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.15, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.38 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM Growth Rate", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee Revenue Stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market Performance", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Environment", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive Landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation via simplified DCF with growth and margin assumptions. Market cap in snapshot appears low vs. calculated; using snapshot values. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 104.83, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong AUM growth driving revenue increases.", "High operating margins from stable fee income.", "Diversified global platform reducing geographic risk.", "Exposed to market cycles and economic downturns.", "Leverage amplifies returns but increases risk." ], "target_price_6m": 112, "target_price_12m": 118 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 362, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.117Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 1996, "outputTokens": 4633, "costUsd": 0.002505 } }, { "id": "cmnr12fwa027np658xibp3pri", "runId": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ARES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 104.83,\n \"target_price_6m\": 110.00,\n \"target_price_12m\": 118.00,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading position in private credit provides resilient fee-related earnings growth.\",\n \"Strong recent revenue growth of 28.8% YoY highlights robust fundraising momentum.\",\n \"High forward P/E of 24.7x suggests a valuation premium is already priced in.\",\n \"Macro headwinds and spread compression pose risks to realization revenues.\",\n \"Current price near 52-week low offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Private credit fundraising\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate stabilization\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Default rates in direct lending\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Realization activity and exits\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Retail wealth channel penetration\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Spread compression in direct lending reducing gross returns.\",\n \"Macroeconomic downturn leading to higher portfolio defaults.\",\n \"Slower fundraising cycle if institutional allocations to alts stall.\",\n \"High valuation multiple leaves little room for execution missteps.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.40,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 85.00,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged high rates and rising defaults compress margins and stall fundraising.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 118.00,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady FRE growth and stable credit performance drive moderate multiple expansion.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 145.00,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated retail penetration and strong realization activity push shares toward historical highs.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 20x terminal P/E on forward earnings and DCF (9.5% WACC). The 12M target of $118 implies ~12.5% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Analyst", "risks": [ "Spread compression in direct lending reducing gross returns.", "Macroeconomic downturn leading to higher portfolio defaults.", "Slower fundraising cycle if institutional allocations to alts stall.", "High valuation multiple leaves little room for execution missteps." ], "ticker": "ARES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady FRE growth and stable credit performance drive moderate multiple expansion.", "target_price": 118 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Prolonged high rates and rising defaults compress margins and stall fundraising.", "target_price": 85 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated retail penetration and strong realization activity push shares toward historical highs.", "target_price": 145 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.15, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.4 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Private credit fundraising", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate stabilization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Default rates in direct lending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Realization activity and exits", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retail wealth channel penetration", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 20x terminal P/E on forward earnings and DCF (9.5% WACC). The 12M target of $118 implies ~12.5% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 104.83, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Leading position in private credit provides resilient fee-related earnings growth.", "Strong recent revenue growth of 28.8% YoY highlights robust fundraising momentum.", "High forward P/E of 24.7x suggests a valuation premium is already priced in.", "Macro headwinds and spread compression pose risks to realization revenues.", "Current price near 52-week low offers an attractive entry point for long-term investors." ], "target_price_6m": 110, "target_price_12m": 118 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23139, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.117Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2248, "outputTokens": 826, "costUsd": 0.014408 } }, { "id": "cmnr12fwa027lp658uy57a83s", "runId": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ARES\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":104.83,\"target_price_6m\":110.0,\"target_price_12m\":114.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.63,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Scaled alternative manager with diversified credit-heavy platform.\",\"Revenue growth remains strong despite tougher fundraising backdrop.\",\"Operating margins are healthy, supporting fee-related earnings resilience.\",\"Share price already discounts slower deployment and rate-sensitive marks.\",\"Valuation looks reasonable, but leverage and cyclical fees cap upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM fundraising recovery\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Credit platform expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Realizations and performance fees\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Retail wealth channel penetration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee-related earnings margin\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Higher rates slowing deals\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Balance-sheet leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Market valuation multiples\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Fundraising slowdown persists\",\"Lower performance fees and realizations\",\"Credit losses or spread widening\",\"Regulatory pressure on alternatives\",\"Debt amplifies downturn risk\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":12.0,\"ebit_margin_target\":36.0,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":18.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":88.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Fundraising stays weak and performance fees disappoint.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":114.0,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate AUM growth and stable margins support rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":138.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Deployment, realizations, and wealth inflows rebound faster than expected.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended earnings/fee-related EBITDA multiple with modest growth and margin assumptions. BUY fits ~8.8% base-case upside. Snapshot quote fields were kept; snapshot market cap appears inconsistent with price and shares outstanding. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation", "risks": [ "Fundraising slowdown persists", "Lower performance fees and realizations", "Credit losses or spread widening", "Regulatory pressure on alternatives", "Debt amplifies downturn risk" ], "ticker": "ARES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate AUM growth and stable margins support rerating.", "target_price": 114 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Fundraising stays weak and performance fees disappoint.", "target_price": 88 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Deployment, realizations, and wealth inflows rebound faster than expected.", "target_price": 138 } }, "confidence": 0.63, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 12, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 36 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM fundraising recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Credit platform expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Realizations and performance fees", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Retail wealth channel penetration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings margin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Higher rates slowing deals", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Balance-sheet leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Market valuation multiples", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended earnings/fee-related EBITDA multiple with modest growth and margin assumptions. BUY fits ~8.8% base-case upside. Snapshot quote fields were kept; snapshot market cap appears inconsistent with price and shares outstanding. No sell-side targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 104.83, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Scaled alternative manager with diversified credit-heavy platform.", "Revenue growth remains strong despite tougher fundraising backdrop.", "Operating margins are healthy, supporting fee-related earnings resilience.", "Share price already discounts slower deployment and rate-sensitive marks.", "Valuation looks reasonable, but leverage and cyclical fees cap upside." ], "target_price_6m": 110, "target_price_12m": 114 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_045a58e164fc18600069d756264f648190a3e524fa36b04a8a", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19385, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:44.117Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2268, "outputTokens": 1015, "costUsd": 0.018179 } }, { "id": "cmnr12fwa027op658hgziryxo", "runId": "cmnr12fw8027kp658xuftutuc", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Analyst\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ARES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 104.83,\n \"target_price_6m\": 115,\n \"target_price_12m\": 125,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong AUM growth in credit funds\",\n \"High operating margins near 38%\",\n \"Secular tailwinds for alternatives\",\n \"Diversified revenue across strategies\",\n \"Scalable model drives earnings leverage\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AUM expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-related earnings\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating leverage\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Investment performance\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Rate volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory shifts\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capital markets access\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"AUM outflows in downturn\",\n \"Decline in performance fees\",\n \"Intense competitor pressure\",\n \"Higher interest rate impact\",\n \"Regulatory tightening\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.40,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 92,\n \"prob\": 0.30,\n \"notes\": \"Prolonged outflows and weak markets reduce AUM.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.50,\n \"notes\": \"Steady fundraising and margins drive mid-teens growth.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 155,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated AUM inflows and strong returns.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 15% revenue CAGR, 40% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 20x terminal multiple on 12M horizon. Base case implies 19% upside consistent with BUY; mixed risks balanced by growth. 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