{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12ewv025wp658qvnr2c4t", "ticker": "APO", "snapshotId": "cmnr12ex8025yp6580s2q5bs5", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.866Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12ex8025yp6580s2q5bs5", "assetId": "cmnr12ewv025wp658qvnr2c4t", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 107.05, "dayLow": 105.37, "volume": 3898271, "dayHigh": 112.25, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 105.36, "week52Low": 99.56, "week52High": 157.28 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 25.9426523297491, "beta": 1.44898604899588, "epsTTM": 5.58, "fcfTTM": null, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.2449255751014885, "revenueYoy": 0.2272727272727273 }, "sector": "Investment Advice", "margins": { "net": 0.1089581578208368, "gross": null, "operating": null }, "website": "http://apollo.com", "industry": "Asset management", "pegRatio": -1.05920552882235, "ebitdaTTM": 6131000000, "forwardPe": 16.6966551326413, "marketCap": 58394760022, "totalCash": 20591000000, "totalDebt": 13864000000, "debtEquity": 0.593976264941519, "quickRatio": null, "revenueTTM": 32049000000, "companyName": "Apollo Global Management, Inc.", "priceToBook": 2.0071979301423, "currentRatio": null, "dividendYield": 0.0133941095448323, "returnOnAssets": 0.007575675400098492, "returnOnEquity": 0.149607985947474, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Apollo Global Management, Inc. is an American asset management firm that primarily invests in alternative assets. As of 2025, the company had $840 billion of assets under management, including $392 billion invested in credit, including mezzanine capital, hedge funds, non-performing loans, and collateralized loan obligations, $99 billion invested in private equity, and $46.2 billion invested in real assets, which includes real estate and infrastructure. The company invests money on behalf of pension funds, financial endowments, and sovereign wealth funds, as well as other institutional and individual investors.", "enterpriseValue": 78609020000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 6140, "sharesOutstanding": 578247338, "enterpriseToEbitda": 12.82156581308106, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.45277606165559, "operatingCashflowTTM": 7246000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.861Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12exj0262p6581zi3lr9h", "runId": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"APO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":107.05,\"target_price_6m\":113.0,\"target_price_12m\":120.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Trading near 52-week low offers attractive entry for quality alt manager\",\"$840B AUM franchise provides durable fee-related earnings base\",\"Forward PE of ~16.7x implies market expects material earnings recovery\",\"Revenue grew 22.7% YoY; AUM growth trajectory remains strong\",\"Macro/tariff headwinds and credit risk temper near-term upside conviction\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"AUM growth and fundraising momentum across credit and equity strategies\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Athene insurance platform provides sticky capital and spread income\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fee-related earnings scaling with operating leverage\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Recession/credit cycle risk could impair principal investing returns\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Elevated beta (1.45) amplifies drawdowns in risk-off markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue diversification across credit, PE, and real assets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Potential mark-to-market losses on balance sheet investments\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield ~1.3% provides modest income floor\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Credit cycle deterioration leading to impairments and AUM outflows\",\"Regulatory tightening on insurance-linked alternative asset models\",\"Sustained equity market downturn compressing performance fees and carried interest\",\"Key person and talent retention risk in competitive asset management industry\",\"Rising rates or spread widening hurting Athene insurance book value\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.10,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.28,\"wacc\":0.11,\"terminal_multiple\":16.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":85.0,\"prob\":0.20,\"notes\":\"Recession drives credit losses, AUM outflows, PE compresses to ~13x forward.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":120.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Moderate AUM growth continues, earnings recover, ~17x forward PE re-rating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":148.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong fundraising, market rally lifts performance fees, PE expands to ~20x forward.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward PE (16.7x snapshot) and normalized FRE/SRE earnings power. Applied terminal multiple of 16x to estimated forward EPS of ~$6.40-$7.50 across scenarios. AUM-driven fee growth assumed at 10% CAGR. WACC reflects high beta. Stock near 52-wk low provides margin of safety but macro uncertainty caps confidence. 12M expected return ~12% supports BUY. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Credit cycle deterioration leading to impairments and AUM outflows", "Regulatory tightening on insurance-linked alternative asset models", "Sustained equity market downturn compressing performance fees and carried interest", "Key person and talent retention risk in competitive asset management industry", "Rising rates or spread widening hurting Athene insurance book value" ], "ticker": "APO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Moderate AUM growth continues, earnings recover, ~17x forward PE re-rating.", "target_price": 120 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Recession drives credit losses, AUM outflows, PE compresses to ~13x forward.", "target_price": 85 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong fundraising, market rally lifts performance fees, PE expands to ~20x forward.", "target_price": 148 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.11, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 16, "ebit_margin_target": 0.28 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM growth and fundraising momentum across credit and equity strategies", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Athene insurance platform provides sticky capital and spread income", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings scaling with operating leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Recession/credit cycle risk could impair principal investing returns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Elevated beta (1.45) amplifies drawdowns in risk-off markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Revenue diversification across credit, PE, and real assets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Potential mark-to-market losses on balance sheet investments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield ~1.3% provides modest income floor", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on forward PE (16.7x snapshot) and normalized FRE/SRE earnings power. Applied terminal multiple of 16x to estimated forward EPS of ~$6.40-$7.50 across scenarios. AUM-driven fee growth assumed at 10% CAGR. WACC reflects high beta. Stock near 52-wk low provides margin of safety but macro uncertainty caps confidence. 12M expected return ~12% supports BUY. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 107.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Trading near 52-week low offers attractive entry for quality alt manager", "$840B AUM franchise provides durable fee-related earnings base", "Forward PE of ~16.7x implies market expects material earnings recovery", "Revenue grew 22.7% YoY; AUM growth trajectory remains strong", "Macro/tariff headwinds and credit risk temper near-term upside conviction" ], "target_price_6m": 113, "target_price_12m": 120 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 38508, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.866Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3605, "outputTokens": 1686, "costUsd": 0.060175 } }, { "id": "cmnr12exj0265p658twn0kygv", "runId": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Equity Research AI Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"APO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 107.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 115.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 126.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong AUM growth supports revenue expansion.\",\n \"Fee margins improving with scale and efficiency.\",\n \"Diversified asset platforms reduce concentration risk.\",\n \"Economic cycles pose risks to performance fees.\",\n \"Valuation reasonable based on forward earnings growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"AUM Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Fee Income Stability\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Interest Rate Changes\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operational Leverage\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory Environment\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Pressures\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic recession impacting AUM and fees\",\n \"Adverse regulatory changes\",\n \"Investment underperformance leading to outflows\",\n \"High valuation multiples correction\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.2,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 104.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Lower growth and multiple compression due to economic headwinds.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 126.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Moderate AUM growth and stable margins driving earnings.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 150.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong performance fees and multiple expansion from market optimism.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 12% revenue CAGR, 20% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 18x terminal multiple. BUY due to ~18% 12M expected return. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Equity Research AI Model", "risks": [ "Economic recession impacting AUM and fees", "Adverse regulatory changes", "Investment underperformance leading to outflows", "High valuation multiples correction" ], "ticker": "APO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Moderate AUM growth and stable margins driving earnings.", "target_price": 126 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Lower growth and multiple compression due to economic headwinds.", "target_price": 104 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong performance fees and multiple expansion from market optimism.", "target_price": 150 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.2 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "AUM Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fee Income Stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest Rate Changes", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operational Leverage", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory Environment", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Competitive Pressures", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 12% revenue CAGR, 20% EBIT margin, 9% WACC, 18x terminal multiple. BUY due to ~18% 12M expected return. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 107.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong AUM growth supports revenue expansion.", "Fee margins improving with scale and efficiency.", "Diversified asset platforms reduce concentration risk.", "Economic cycles pose risks to performance fees.", "Valuation reasonable based on forward earnings growth." ], "target_price_6m": 115, "target_price_12m": 126 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 350, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.866Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2120, "outputTokens": 4104, "costUsd": 0.002317 } }, { "id": "cmnr12exj0263p658c5pnr1op", "runId": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"SOTP / Forward P/E\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"APO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 107.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 115.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 125.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Strong AUM growth driven by private credit and Athene synergies.\",\n \"Recent EPS decline reflects near-term margin pressure, creating an attractive entry point.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 16.7x is undemanding relative to historical alternative asset manager multiples.\",\n \"High interest rates benefit Apollo's massive credit portfolio and Athene's spread-based earnings.\",\n \"Macroeconomic uncertainty and rate cuts pose risks to fee-related earnings growth.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Private credit origination volume\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Athene spread margins\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate cuts\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Retail channel fundraising\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Real estate portfolio valuations\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Faster-than-expected interest rate cuts compressing Athene's net investment spread.\",\n \"Deterioration in private credit quality leading to higher defaults.\",\n \"Regulatory scrutiny on private credit and insurance-linked asset managers.\",\n \"Slower realization of performance fees in a subdued M&A environment.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.12,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.35,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 90.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Credit defaults spike and Athene spreads compress amid rapid rate cuts.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 125.0,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady AUM growth and stable FRE margins drive multiple expansion to historical averages.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 145.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Robust retail fundraising and a rebound in M&A accelerate performance fee realizations.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, applying a 15x multiple to Fee-Related Earnings and 10x to Spread-Related Earnings. The BUY rating reflects ~16.7% upside to our 12M target. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "SOTP / Forward P/E", "risks": [ "Faster-than-expected interest rate cuts compressing Athene's net investment spread.", "Deterioration in private credit quality leading to higher defaults.", "Regulatory scrutiny on private credit and insurance-linked asset managers.", "Slower realization of performance fees in a subdued M&A environment." ], "ticker": "APO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady AUM growth and stable FRE margins drive multiple expansion to historical averages.", "target_price": 125 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Credit defaults spike and Athene spreads compress amid rapid rate cuts.", "target_price": 90 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Robust retail fundraising and a rebound in M&A accelerate performance fee realizations.", "target_price": 145 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.12, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.35 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Private credit origination volume", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Athene spread margins", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate cuts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Retail channel fundraising", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Real estate portfolio valuations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Fee-related earnings (FRE) margin expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, applying a 15x multiple to Fee-Related Earnings and 10x to Spread-Related Earnings. The BUY rating reflects ~16.7% upside to our 12M target. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 107.05, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong AUM growth driven by private credit and Athene synergies.", "Recent EPS decline reflects near-term margin pressure, creating an attractive entry point.", "Forward P/E of 16.7x is undemanding relative to historical alternative asset manager multiples.", "High interest rates benefit Apollo's massive credit portfolio and Athene's spread-based earnings.", "Macroeconomic uncertainty and rate cuts pose risks to fee-related earnings growth." ], "target_price_6m": 115, "target_price_12m": 125 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 29318, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.866Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2435, "outputTokens": 852, "costUsd": 0.015094 } }, { "id": "cmnr12exj0261p658l12ussrh", "runId": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"APO\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":107.05,\"target_price_6m\":103.5,\"target_price_12m\":112,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Fee-related earnings should outgrow volatile principal investing over time.\",\"Large credit franchise and insurance ties support durable AUM inflows.\",\"Forward P/E has compressed after the drawdown, reducing valuation risk.\",\"Near-term earnings remain sensitive to exits, spreads, and fundraising pace.\",\"Current valuation looks roughly fair until EPS growth re-accelerates.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Credit AUM growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Athene spread earnings\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Private equity exits\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Fundraising normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Market-sensitive fee assets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Realization slowdown\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Higher funding spreads\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory or tax changes\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Weaker fundraising or insurance inflows\",\"Credit losses or spread compression\",\"Lower transaction activity delays monetizations\",\"High beta amplifies market drawdowns\",\"Regulatory or tax changes on alternative managers\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":11.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":21.5,\"wacc\":9.5,\"terminal_multiple\":17.5},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":90,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Exit activity and spreads stay weak, pressuring earnings multiples.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":112,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady AUM growth offsets only partial recovery in realizations.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":132,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Stronger exits, inflows, and spread earnings drive renewed EPS growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"12M target uses a blended forward earnings-power and EV/EBITDA cross-check for large alternative managers. Snapshot quote and fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used as inputs. HOLD fits ~4.6% 12M upside with mixed growth and earnings signals; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Weaker fundraising or insurance inflows", "Credit losses or spread compression", "Lower transaction activity delays monetizations", "High beta amplifies market drawdowns", "Regulatory or tax changes on alternative managers" ], "ticker": "APO", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady AUM growth offsets only partial recovery in realizations.", "target_price": 112 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Exit activity and spreads stay weak, pressuring earnings multiples.", "target_price": 90 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Stronger exits, inflows, and spread earnings drive renewed EPS growth.", "target_price": 132 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 9.5, "revenue_cagr_3y": 11.5, "terminal_multiple": 17.5, "ebit_margin_target": 21.5 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Credit AUM growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Athene spread earnings", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Private equity exits", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Fundraising normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Market-sensitive fee assets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Realization slowdown", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Higher funding spreads", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Regulatory or tax changes", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "12M target uses a blended forward earnings-power and EV/EBITDA cross-check for large alternative managers. Snapshot quote and fundamentals were kept authoritative; no sell-side targets used as inputs. HOLD fits ~4.6% 12M upside with mixed growth and earnings signals; not investment advice.", "current_price": 107.05, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Fee-related earnings should outgrow volatile principal investing over time.", "Large credit franchise and insurance ties support durable AUM inflows.", "Forward P/E has compressed after the drawdown, reducing valuation risk.", "Near-term earnings remain sensitive to exits, spreads, and fundraising pace.", "Current valuation looks roughly fair until EPS growth re-accelerates." ], "target_price_6m": 103.5, "target_price_12m": 112 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_03ff26b779a2a8660069d75611b0b081959c67fcc43141ca0a", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 35940, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:42.866Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2387, "outputTokens": 1927, "costUsd": 0.031155 } }, { "id": "cmnr12exj0264p658lfeckmb7", "runId": "cmnr12exh0260p6584xnms08s", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"APO\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 107.05,\n \"target_price_6m\": 115,\n \"target_price_12m\": 127,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Leading alternative asset manager with $840B AUM\",\n \"Strong revenue growth offset by volatile EPS\",\n \"Insurance capital provides competitive advantage\",\n \"Forward valuation compelling at 17x P/E\",\n \"Secular demand for alternatives remains robust\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"AUM and fundraising growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Credit market opportunities\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Athene insurance synergies\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Fee-related earnings stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Market volatility and outflows\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory and compliance risks\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation multiple contraction\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Significant AUM outflows in downturns\",\n \"Intense competition in alternative investments\",\n \"Interest rate fluctuations affecting credit funds\",\n \"Potential regulatory changes for private markets\",\n \"Integration risks from strategic acquisitions\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.15,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.105,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 85,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Economic recession leads to reduced AUM and lower fees.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 127,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Moderate AUM growth with stable operating margins.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 160,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong inflows and expansion in insurance assets.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Built bottom-up DCF with revenue CAGR, EBIT margin, WACC and terminal multiple assumptions. 19% 12M upside supports BUY rating. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Significant AUM outflows in downturns", "Intense competition in alternative investments", "Interest rate fluctuations affecting credit funds", "Potential regulatory changes for private markets", "Integration risks from strategic acquisitions" ], "ticker": "APO", 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