{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12by70202p658c4v6sjel", "ticker": "ALLE", "snapshotId": "cmnr12byi0204p65861rpedph", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12byi0204p65861rpedph", "assetId": "cmnr12by70202p658c4v6sjel", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 144.49, "dayLow": 142.02, "volume": 720020, "dayHigh": 144.875, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 139.4, "week52Low": 116.57, "week52High": 183.11 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 21.2860962566845, "beta": 0.885924181259539, "epsTTM": 7.48, "fcfTTM": 594800000, "growth": { "epsYoy": 0.09197080291970815, "revenueYoy": 0.07823021048724882 }, "sector": "Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services", "margins": { "net": 0.158286824183119, "gross": null, "operating": 0.211319548594891 }, "website": "http://allegion.com", "industry": "Security", "pegRatio": 2.31444062473474, "ebitdaTTM": 995700000, "forwardPe": 18.1343963553531, "marketCap": 12300000000, "totalCash": 356200000, "totalDebt": 1980300000, "debtEquity": 0.957777132907719, "quickRatio": 0.4715382578766217, "revenueTTM": 4067300000, "companyName": "Allegion plc", "priceToBook": 6.63031630876378, "currentRatio": 1.842467566851999, "dividendYield": 0.0128019565766386, "returnOnAssets": 0.1232459750751383, "returnOnEquity": 0.311375507835171, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Allegion plc is an American Irish-domiciled provider of security products for homes and businesses. Though it comprises thirty-one global brands, including CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage and Von Duprin, the company operates through two main sections: Allegion International and Allegion Americas. The company employs around 12,000 people, sells its products in more than 130 countries across the world and in 2022 generated revenues of US$3.27 billion.", "enterpriseValue": 15332942000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 14400, "sharesOutstanding": 86145484, "enterpriseToEbitda": 15.39915838103846, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.769808472451012, "operatingCashflowTTM": 783800000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.018Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12byx0208p658pn00pbti", "runId": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ALLE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":144.49,\"target_price_6m\":151.0,\"target_price_12m\":158.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Quality security products franchise with strong brand portfolio and pricing power\",\"Forward P/E of 18.1x reasonable for mid-single-digit grower with 21% operating margins\",\"FCF yield of ~4.8% supports shareholder returns and deleveraging capacity\",\"Stock trading 21% below 52-week high creates attractive entry on pullback\",\"Non-residential and institutional end markets provide secular tailwinds for security spend\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Non-residential construction and institutional security spending\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Pricing power across Schlage and premium brand portfolio\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin expansion via operational efficiency and mix shift\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Electronic and connected lock adoption trends\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Residential housing cycle uncertainty and rate sensitivity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage at ~1x debt/equity constrains flexibility\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"PEG ratio of 2.3x implies premium relative to growth rate\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"International segment FX headwinds and slower growth\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Residential and commercial construction downturn compresses volumes\",\"Tariffs or input cost inflation squeezes margins before pricing offsets\",\"Elevated interest rates reduce renovation and new construction activity\",\"Competitive pressure from smart-lock entrants erodes premium brand share\",\"Acquisition integration risk on bolt-on deals dilutes returns\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.05,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":18.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":124.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Construction downturn and margin compression drive EPS to ~$7.50 on 16.5x multiple.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":158.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady mid-single-digit growth, slight margin expansion, ~$8.30 EPS on 19x multiple.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":182.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong institutional demand and electronic lock adoption drive ~$8.70 EPS on 21x multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward P/E applied to estimated FY EPS. Revenue CAGR ~5% reflects organic pricing + volume mix; operating margin expansion to 22% from 21.1% TTM. WACC 9% used as discount check. Terminal EV/EBITDA of 18x consistent with quality industrials. 12M base target implies ~9.3% upside supporting BUY. Snapshot fields authoritative. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Residential and commercial construction downturn compresses volumes", "Tariffs or input cost inflation squeezes margins before pricing offsets", "Elevated interest rates reduce renovation and new construction activity", "Competitive pressure from smart-lock entrants erodes premium brand share", "Acquisition integration risk on bolt-on deals dilutes returns" ], "ticker": "ALLE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady mid-single-digit growth, slight margin expansion, ~$8.30 EPS on 19x multiple.", "target_price": 158 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Construction downturn and margin compression drive EPS to ~$7.50 on 16.5x multiple.", "target_price": 124 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong institutional demand and electronic lock adoption drive ~$8.70 EPS on 21x multiple.", "target_price": 182 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.05, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Non-residential construction and institutional security spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Pricing power across Schlage and premium brand portfolio", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion via operational efficiency and mix shift", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Electronic and connected lock adoption trends", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Residential housing cycle uncertainty and rate sensitivity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Leverage at ~1x debt/equity constrains flexibility", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "PEG ratio of 2.3x implies premium relative to growth rate", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "International segment FX headwinds and slower growth", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Earnings-power valuation anchored on forward P/E applied to estimated FY EPS. Revenue CAGR ~5% reflects organic pricing + volume mix; operating margin expansion to 22% from 21.1% TTM. WACC 9% used as discount check. Terminal EV/EBITDA of 18x consistent with quality industrials. 12M base target implies ~9.3% upside supporting BUY. Snapshot fields authoritative. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 144.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Quality security products franchise with strong brand portfolio and pricing power", "Forward P/E of 18.1x reasonable for mid-single-digit grower with 21% operating margins", "FCF yield of ~4.8% supports shareholder returns and deleveraging capacity", "Stock trading 21% below 52-week high creates attractive entry on pullback", "Non-residential and institutional end markets provide secular tailwinds for security spend" ], "target_price_6m": 151, "target_price_12m": 158 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 51692, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3619, "outputTokens": 1548, "costUsd": 0.056795 } }, { "id": "cmnr12byx020bp658vsq8r85b", "runId": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ALLE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 144.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 148.6,\n \"target_price_12m\": 150.8,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Steady revenue growth in security products market.\",\n \"Strong operating margins support profitability.\",\n \"International expansion driving future growth.\",\n \"Competitive industry with pricing pressure risks.\",\n \"Valuation appears fair relative to growth prospects.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Revenue Growth\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Operating Margin\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt Levels\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market Demand for Security\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive Landscape\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic Cycles\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Innovation in Products\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Dividend Yield\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Economic downturn reducing demand.\",\n \"Increased competition eroding margins.\",\n \"Regulatory changes affecting operations.\",\n \"Foreign exchange risk from international sales.\",\n \"Supply chain disruptions.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.08,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.08,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 18\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 132.6, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Slower growth and multiple contraction.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 150.8, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady earnings growth and stable multiples.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 170.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated growth and multiple expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on forward P/E and earnings growth. Recommendation HOLD due to fair valuation. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model v1", "risks": [ "Economic downturn reducing demand.", "Increased competition eroding margins.", "Regulatory changes affecting operations.", "Foreign exchange risk from international sales.", "Supply chain disruptions." ], "ticker": "ALLE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady earnings growth and stable multiples.", "target_price": 150.8 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Slower growth and multiple contraction.", "target_price": 132.6 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated growth and multiple expansion.", "target_price": 170 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.08, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.08, "terminal_multiple": 18, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Revenue Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt Levels", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Market Demand for Security", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive Landscape", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Economic Cycles", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Innovation in Products", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend Yield", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on forward P/E and earnings growth. Recommendation HOLD due to fair valuation. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 144.49, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Steady revenue growth in security products market.", "Strong operating margins support profitability.", "International expansion driving future growth.", "Competitive industry with pricing pressure risks.", "Valuation appears fair relative to growth prospects." ], "target_price_6m": 148.6, "target_price_12m": 150.8 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 384, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2127, "outputTokens": 3254, "costUsd": 0.001962 } }, { "id": "cmnr12byx0209p658nstimnks", "runId": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"equity_research_v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ALLE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":144.49,\"target_price_6m\":154.0,\"target_price_12m\":164.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.7,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong market position in mechanical and electronic security products drives resilient cash flows.\",\"High ROE of 31 percent and operating margins of 21 percent demonstrate excellent pricing power.\",\"Transition to electronic and smart locks provides a multi-year structural growth tailwind.\",\"Valuation is attractive following the pullback from the 183 dollar 52-week high.\",\"Commercial construction cyclicality and high interest rates pose near-term volume risks.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Electronic lock adoption\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Non-residential construction starts\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rates and mortgage rates\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Raw material costs\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Pricing power and inflation pass-through\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Institutional retrofit demand\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Residential housing turnover\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Prolonged downturn in commercial real estate and office retrofits.\",\"Higher-for-longer interest rates dampening residential housing turnover.\",\"Increased competition in the smart home security market from tech entrants.\",\"Supply chain disruptions impacting electronic component availability.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.06,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.22,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":15.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":120.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Macro recession and high rates severely depress commercial and residential construction volumes.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":164.0,\"prob\":0.6,\"notes\":\"Steady electronic lock adoption and resilient institutional demand offset broader macro softness.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":187.0,\"prob\":0.15,\"notes\":\"Accelerated smart lock upgrades and a strong rebound in housing turnover drive multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation based on a blend of 20x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 15x terminal EV/EBITDA). The BUY rating reflects a 13.5% upside to the $164 base target, supported by strong FCF generation and electronic lock adoption, balanced against commercial real estate risks. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "equity_research_v1", "risks": [ "Prolonged downturn in commercial real estate and office retrofits.", "Higher-for-longer interest rates dampening residential housing turnover.", "Increased competition in the smart home security market from tech entrants.", "Supply chain disruptions impacting electronic component availability." ], "ticker": "ALLE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady electronic lock adoption and resilient institutional demand offset broader macro softness.", "target_price": 164 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Macro recession and high rates severely depress commercial and residential construction volumes.", "target_price": 120 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.15, "notes": "Accelerated smart lock upgrades and a strong rebound in housing turnover drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 187 } }, "confidence": 0.7, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Electronic lock adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Non-residential construction starts", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rates and mortgage rates", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Raw material costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Pricing power and inflation pass-through", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Institutional retrofit demand", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Residential housing turnover", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 20x forward P/E and DCF (8.5% WACC, 15x terminal EV/EBITDA). The BUY rating reflects a 13.5% upside to the $164 base target, supported by strong FCF generation and electronic lock adoption, balanced against commercial real estate risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 144.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong market position in mechanical and electronic security products drives resilient cash flows.", "High ROE of 31 percent and operating margins of 21 percent demonstrate excellent pricing power.", "Transition to electronic and smart locks provides a multi-year structural growth tailwind.", "Valuation is attractive following the pullback from the 183 dollar 52-week high.", "Commercial construction cyclicality and high interest rates pose near-term volume risks." ], "target_price_6m": 154, "target_price_12m": 164 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30178, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2482, "outputTokens": 598, "costUsd": 0.01214 } }, { "id": "cmnr12byx0207p658g03ugw95", "runId": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ALLE\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":144.49,\"target_price_6m\":147.5,\"target_price_12m\":150,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.64,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"High-margin security franchise supports resilient earnings.\",\"Moderate revenue and EPS growth justify quality premium.\",\"Valuation already reflects much of the defensive story.\",\"Cash generation supports buybacks, dividend, and bolt-on M&A.\",\"Commercial and residential demand remain cycle-sensitive near term.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Non-residential security demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Institutional retrofit activity\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Residential channel softness\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Price-cost discipline\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Electronics and access control mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Bolt-on acquisitions integration\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Leverage and interest expense\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Premium valuation multiple\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Housing and commercial slowdown\",\"Margin pressure from input costs\",\"Execution risk on acquisitions\",\"Distributor destocking or project delays\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":5.5,\"ebit_margin_target\":22,\"wacc\":8.2,\"terminal_multiple\":17},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":125,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Construction weakness and mix pressure compress earnings and valuation.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":150,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Steady growth and margins sustain current premium with modest upside.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":170,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Electronic security mix and pricing drive faster EPS growth.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended 12M valuation using forward earnings/EV-EBITDA cross-checks anchored to snapshot fundamentals and FCF quality; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. Recommendation is HOLD as upside is modest versus fair value; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Housing and commercial slowdown", "Margin pressure from input costs", "Execution risk on acquisitions", "Distributor destocking or project delays" ], "ticker": "ALLE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth and margins sustain current premium with modest upside.", "target_price": 150 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Construction weakness and mix pressure compress earnings and valuation.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Electronic security mix and pricing drive faster EPS growth.", "target_price": 170 } }, "confidence": 0.64, "assumptions": { "wacc": 8.2, "revenue_cagr_3y": 5.5, "terminal_multiple": 17, "ebit_margin_target": 22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Non-residential security demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Institutional retrofit activity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Residential channel softness", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Price-cost discipline", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Electronics and access control mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Bolt-on acquisitions integration", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Leverage and interest expense", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Premium valuation multiple", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended 12M valuation using forward earnings/EV-EBITDA cross-checks anchored to snapshot fundamentals and FCF quality; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot quote fields kept authoritative. Recommendation is HOLD as upside is modest versus fair value; not investment advice.", "current_price": 144.49, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "High-margin security franchise supports resilient earnings.", "Moderate revenue and EPS growth justify quality premium.", "Valuation already reflects much of the defensive story.", "Cash generation supports buybacks, dividend, and bolt-on M&A.", "Commercial and residential demand remain cycle-sensitive near term." ], "target_price_6m": 147.5, "target_price_12m": 150 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_05fc1972cf8a72320069d740452d2c81969f55ad064d361619", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 16691, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2398, "outputTokens": 993, "costUsd": 0.018099 } }, { "id": "cmnr12byx020ap658cw9mh1ir", "runId": "cmnr12byt0206p658y0gi80fy", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Fundamental DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ALLE\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 144.49,\n \"target_price_6m\": 153,\n \"target_price_12m\": 162,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Steady 7-8% organic growth in security demand\",\n \"Strong FCF and ROE support dividends buybacks\",\n \"Brand strength drives pricing power and margins\",\n \"PEG above 2x signals valuation is not cheap\",\n \"Cyclical construction exposure adds uncertainty\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Residential commercial construction activity\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Brand portfolio pricing power\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion execution\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International revenue growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Housing market cyclicality\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Input cost inflation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Geopolitical FX volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged construction downturn\",\n \"Margin compression from inflation\",\n \"Adverse currency movements\",\n \"Increased competitive pressure\",\n \"Acquisition integration failure\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 16.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 125,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Weak end markets and margin pressure.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 162,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady growth and margin execution.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 190,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Strong demand and efficiency gains.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using 3y explicit forecast with assumptions then terminal value. 12% base upside supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Fundamental DCF Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged construction downturn", "Margin compression from inflation", "Adverse currency movements", "Increased competitive pressure", "Acquisition integration failure" ], "ticker": "ALLE", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady growth and margin execution.", "target_price": 162 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Weak end markets and margin pressure.", "target_price": 125 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong demand and efficiency gains.", "target_price": 190 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 16.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Residential commercial construction activity", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Brand portfolio pricing power", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International revenue growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Housing market cyclicality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Debt servicing costs", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Input cost inflation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Geopolitical FX volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using 3y explicit forecast with assumptions then terminal value. 12% base upside supports BUY per rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 144.49, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Steady 7-8% organic growth in security demand", "Strong FCF and ROE support dividends buybacks", "Brand strength drives pricing power and margins", "PEG above 2x signals valuation is not cheap", "Cyclical construction exposure adds uncertainty" ], "target_price_6m": 153, "target_price_12m": 162 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "143720c7-f7c7-987e-9418-8a714655438d", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23847, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:39.027Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2736, "outputTokens": 3494, "costUsd": 0.060618 } } ] } }