{ "run": { "id": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr12avj01yip658rd7f05lu", "ticker": "AKAM", "snapshotId": "cmnr12avs01ykp658bac362b5", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr12avs01ykp658bac362b5", "assetId": "cmnr12avj01yip658rd7f05lu", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 116, "dayLow": 113.2, "volume": 5631994, "dayHigh": 117.351, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 113.89, "week52Low": 67.51, "week52High": 121.12 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 28.0546623794212, "beta": 0.862278978279143, "epsTTM": 3.11, "fcfTTM": 471763000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.0688622754491018, "revenueYoy": 0.05437180294089349 }, "sector": "Services-Business Services, NEC", "margins": { "net": 0.1074173483754834, "gross": null, "operating": 0.134724435176769 }, "website": "https://akamai.com", "industry": "Internet", "pegRatio": -4.07402488466377, "ebitdaTTM": 1334947000, "forwardPe": 18.7634408602151, "marketCap": 11183900000, "totalCash": 298612000, "totalDebt": 1162230000, "debtEquity": 0.342271050319536, "quickRatio": 1.729843141172944, "revenueTTM": 4208175000, "companyName": "AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC", "priceToBook": 2.54880026021769, "currentRatio": 1.996426471989163, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.05416162181365486, "returnOnEquity": 0.0908172205768869, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Akamai Technologies, Inc. is an American company specializing in content delivery network (CDN), cybersecurity, DDoS mitigation, and cloud services. It is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.", "enterpriseValue": 13459703500, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 11000, "sharesOutstanding": 144888114, "enterpriseToEbitda": 10.08257518837826, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 3.198465724452999, "operatingCashflowTTM": 1518765000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.625Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr12aw501yop658c982d2ww", "runId": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-ai-equity-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AKAM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":116,\"target_price_6m\":118,\"target_price_12m\":122,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Security and cloud segments growing but CDN revenue faces secular headwinds\",\"EV/EBITDA of ~10x is reasonable but limited re-rating catalyst near-term\",\"Operating margins at 13.5% have room to expand with mix shift\",\"EPS declined 6.9% YoY despite 5.4% revenue growth signaling investment drag\",\"Stock trading near 52-week high of $121 limits near-term upside\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Security revenue growth (double-digit) driving mix improvement\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Cloud computing expansion via Linode acquisition scaling\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Legacy CDN business secular decline pressuring overall growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion as higher-margin security scales\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting EPS growth\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Competitive pressure from hyperscalers in CDN and edge\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Enterprise IT spending environment moderating\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Net debt of ~$864M manageable with strong OCF of $1.5B\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Hyperscaler competition (AWS CloudFront, Azure CDN) erodes CDN share further\",\"Cloud/compute segment fails to achieve scale economics against larger rivals\",\"Macro slowdown reduces enterprise security and IT spending\",\"Acquisition integration risk from Linode and Guardicore dampens margins\",\"Valuation near 52-week high leaves limited margin of safety\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.18,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":11},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":95,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"CDN decline accelerates, cloud segment fails to offset, multiple compresses to 8.5x EBITDA.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":122,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion, EV/EBITDA stays ~10x.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":145,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Security/cloud inflection drives accelerating growth, margin expansion to 18%, multiple re-rates to 12x.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield approach. Forward EBITDA ~$1.45B at 10x = EV $14.5B less ~$864M net debt = ~$94/sh equity on pure EBITDA basis; forward PE of 18.8x implies significant earnings normalization above TTM EPS $3.11, bridging to ~$122 base. Stock near 52-wk high with mixed growth signals supports HOLD. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$121 (~4.3% upside) consistent with HOLD rubric. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "claude-ai-equity-v1", "risks": [ "Hyperscaler competition (AWS CloudFront, Azure CDN) erodes CDN share further", "Cloud/compute segment fails to achieve scale economics against larger rivals", "Macro slowdown reduces enterprise security and IT spending", "Acquisition integration risk from Linode and Guardicore dampens margins", "Valuation near 52-week high leaves limited margin of safety" ], "ticker": "AKAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Mid-single-digit revenue growth, modest margin expansion, EV/EBITDA stays ~10x.", "target_price": 122 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "CDN decline accelerates, cloud segment fails to offset, multiple compresses to 8.5x EBITDA.", "target_price": 95 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Security/cloud inflection drives accelerating growth, margin expansion to 18%, multiple re-rates to 12x.", "target_price": 145 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Security revenue growth (double-digit) driving mix improvement", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cloud computing expansion via Linode acquisition scaling", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Legacy CDN business secular decline pressuring overall growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion as higher-margin security scales", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program supporting EPS growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from hyperscalers in CDN and edge", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Enterprise IT spending environment moderating", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Net debt of ~$864M manageable with strong OCF of $1.5B", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield approach. Forward EBITDA ~$1.45B at 10x = EV $14.5B less ~$864M net debt = ~$94/sh equity on pure EBITDA basis; forward PE of 18.8x implies significant earnings normalization above TTM EPS $3.11, bridging to ~$122 base. Stock near 52-wk high with mixed growth signals supports HOLD. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$121 (~4.3% upside) consistent with HOLD rubric. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 116, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Security and cloud segments growing but CDN revenue faces secular headwinds", "EV/EBITDA of ~10x is reasonable but limited re-rating catalyst near-term", "Operating margins at 13.5% have room to expand with mix shift", "EPS declined 6.9% YoY despite 5.4% revenue growth signaling investment drag", "Stock trading near 52-week high of $121 limits near-term upside" ], "target_price_6m": 118, "target_price_12m": 122 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 45148, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3547, "outputTokens": 2068, "costUsd": 0.069435 } }, { "id": "cmnr12aw501yrp658jx2oznjj", "runId": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"DCF with scenario analysis\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AKAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 116,\n \"target_price_6m\": 118,\n \"target_price_12m\": 120,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue growth steady but EPS pressure from investments.\",\n \"Strong market position in CDN and cybersecurity.\",\n \"Margins improving but competition is intensifying.\",\n \"Debt manageable with healthy cash flow generation.\",\n \"Valuation near fair value based on forward multiples.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Cloud and edge computing adoption\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Cybersecurity spending trends\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competitive pressure from larger cloud providers\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Margin expansion through operational efficiency\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Debt service costs\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Innovation in new service offerings\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory changes affecting data handling\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Global economic conditions impacting IT budgets\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Increased competition eroding market share.\",\n \"Technology shifts reducing demand for traditional CDN.\",\n \"Failure to achieve margin targets.\",\n \"Cybersecurity breaches damaging reputation.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.15,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 110, \"prob\": 0.3, \"notes\": \"Competition intensifies and growth stalls.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 120, \"prob\": 0.5, \"notes\": \"Steady execution and moderate growth.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 130, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption of new services.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on DCF with assumed 6% revenue growth, 15% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, terminal multiple 10.5x. Recommendation HOLD due to fair valuation and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "DCF with scenario analysis", "risks": [ "Increased competition eroding market share.", "Technology shifts reducing demand for traditional CDN.", "Failure to achieve margin targets.", "Cybersecurity breaches damaging reputation." ], "ticker": "AKAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution and moderate growth.", "target_price": 120 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Competition intensifies and growth stalls.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated adoption of new services.", "target_price": 130 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 10.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Cloud and edge computing adoption", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cybersecurity spending trends", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competitive pressure from larger cloud providers", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion through operational efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt service costs", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Innovation in new service offerings", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory changes affecting data handling", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global economic conditions impacting IT budgets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on DCF with assumed 6% revenue growth, 15% EBIT margin, 8.5% WACC, terminal multiple 10.5x. Recommendation HOLD due to fair valuation and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 116, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth steady but EPS pressure from investments.", "Strong market position in CDN and cybersecurity.", "Margins improving but competition is intensifying.", "Debt manageable with healthy cash flow generation.", "Valuation near fair value based on forward multiples." ], "target_price_6m": 118, "target_price_12m": 120 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 358, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2058, "outputTokens": 3438, "costUsd": 0.00202 } }, { "id": "cmnr12aw501ypp658ktmhbtf2", "runId": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Akamai_Equity_Model_v1\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AKAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 116,\n \"target_price_6m\": 123,\n \"target_price_12m\": 130,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Transition to high-margin security and compute segments offsets legacy CDN delivery revenue declines.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 18.7x is attractive relative to pure-play cybersecurity and cloud peers.\",\n \"Strong free cash flow generation supports ongoing share repurchases and strategic bolt-on acquisitions.\",\n \"Near-term EPS growth is pressured by compute infrastructure investments, but long-term margins should expand.\",\n \"Macroeconomic stabilization could drive a rebound in enterprise IT spending and web traffic volumes.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Security Solutions Growth\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cloud Compute Scaling\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"CDN Delivery Pricing Pressure\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Operating Margin Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Capital Expenditure on Infrastructure\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Enterprise IT Budget Recovery\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Accelerated commoditization and pricing pressure in the legacy CDN delivery business.\",\n \"Intense competition in cloud compute from hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and GCP.\",\n \"Failure to integrate acquisitions or realize expected ROI on compute infrastructure buildouts.\",\n \"Macroeconomic slowdown reducing overall internet traffic and enterprise security spending.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.06,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.18,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 14.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 90,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Delivery revenues collapse faster than compute/security can offset, compressing margins.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 130,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Security and compute grow double-digits, driving steady EPS expansion and multiple support.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 155,\n \"prob\": 0.20,\n \"notes\": \"Compute gains significant market share from hyperscalers, driving accelerated revenue growth.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of 20x forward P/E and a 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 3% terminal growth). The 12M target implies a 12% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Akamai_Equity_Model_v1", "risks": [ "Accelerated commoditization and pricing pressure in the legacy CDN delivery business.", "Intense competition in cloud compute from hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and GCP.", "Failure to integrate acquisitions or realize expected ROI on compute infrastructure buildouts.", "Macroeconomic slowdown reducing overall internet traffic and enterprise security spending." ], "ticker": "AKAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Security and compute grow double-digits, driving steady EPS expansion and multiple support.", "target_price": 130 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Delivery revenues collapse faster than compute/security can offset, compressing margins.", "target_price": 90 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Compute gains significant market share from hyperscalers, driving accelerated revenue growth.", "target_price": 155 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.06, "terminal_multiple": 14, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Security Solutions Growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Cloud Compute Scaling", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "CDN Delivery Pricing Pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Operating Margin Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Capital Expenditure on Infrastructure", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Enterprise IT Budget Recovery", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of 20x forward P/E and a 10-year DCF (8.5% WACC, 3% terminal growth). The 12M target implies a 12% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 116, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Transition to high-margin security and compute segments offsets legacy CDN delivery revenue declines.", "Forward P/E of 18.7x is attractive relative to pure-play cybersecurity and cloud peers.", "Strong free cash flow generation supports ongoing share repurchases and strategic bolt-on acquisitions.", "Near-term EPS growth is pressured by compute infrastructure investments, but long-term margins should expand.", "Macroeconomic stabilization could drive a rebound in enterprise IT spending and web traffic volumes." ], "target_price_6m": 123, "target_price_12m": 130 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 25490, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2394, "outputTokens": 842, "costUsd": 0.014892 } }, { "id": "cmnr12aw501ynp658xnvfclm5", "runId": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"AI Model Recommendation v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AKAM\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":116,\"target_price_6m\":112,\"target_price_12m\":110,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.61,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Security and cloud improve mix, but delivery remains a headwind.\",\"Mid-single-digit revenue growth limits upside at current valuation.\",\"Forward valuation is reasonable, yet margin recovery is not proven.\",\"Strong cash flow supports buybacks, debt service, and resilience.\",\"Shares near highs imply balanced risk/reward, not clear mispricing.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Security revenue mix\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"CDN pricing pressure\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Cloud scaling progress\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Margin recovery execution\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Enterprise IT spending\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Free cash flow conversion\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Buybacks and capital returns\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Valuation multiple normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Cloud and security growth reaccelerate faster than modeled.\",\"Margins expand more quickly from scale and cost discipline.\",\"Buybacks or M&A lift EPS above expectations.\",\"CDN declines deepen or pricing worsens further.\",\"Macro softness delays enterprise demand.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.065,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.165,\"wacc\":0.09,\"terminal_multiple\":11},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":90,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Delivery erosion and weaker spending pressure growth and margins.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":110,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Security offsets delivery drag, with only modest margin improvement.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":128,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Cloud/security scale faster and sustain a premium multiple.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended 12M EV/EBITDA and FCF-yield view using snapshot fundamentals; fair value is slightly below market, so HOLD. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; no consensus price targets used; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Model Recommendation v2", "risks": [ "Cloud and security growth reaccelerate faster than modeled.", "Margins expand more quickly from scale and cost discipline.", "Buybacks or M&A lift EPS above expectations.", "CDN declines deepen or pricing worsens further.", "Macro softness delays enterprise demand." ], "ticker": "AKAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Security offsets delivery drag, with only modest margin improvement.", "target_price": 110 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Delivery erosion and weaker spending pressure growth and margins.", "target_price": 90 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Cloud/security scale faster and sustain a premium multiple.", "target_price": 128 } }, "confidence": 0.61, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.065, "terminal_multiple": 11, "ebit_margin_target": 0.165 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Security revenue mix", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "CDN pricing pressure", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Cloud scaling progress", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Margin recovery execution", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Enterprise IT spending", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Free cash flow conversion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Buybacks and capital returns", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended 12M EV/EBITDA and FCF-yield view using snapshot fundamentals; fair value is slightly below market, so HOLD. Snapshot quote fields were kept authoritative; no consensus price targets used; not investment advice.", "current_price": 116, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Security and cloud improve mix, but delivery remains a headwind.", "Mid-single-digit revenue growth limits upside at current valuation.", "Forward valuation is reasonable, yet margin recovery is not proven.", "Strong cash flow supports buybacks, debt service, and resilience.", "Shares near highs imply balanced risk/reward, not clear mispricing." ], "target_price_6m": 112, "target_price_12m": 110 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_085d9fa135b29daf0069d73b26fb308194ae20a09370a61ca9", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 34939, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2330, "outputTokens": 2346, "costUsd": 0.036921 } }, { "id": "cmnr12aw501yqp658481850fi", "runId": "cmnr12aw101ymp658c2adqi6r", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Valuation Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AKAM\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 116,\n \"target_price_6m\": 124,\n \"target_price_12m\": 132,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Rising cyber threats boost security solutions demand.\",\n \"Core CDN business faces pricing pressure from hyperscalers.\",\n \"Strong FCF generation funds innovation and buybacks.\",\n \"Operating margins expected to expand to 17% target.\",\n \"19x forward P/E appears reasonable given growth outlook.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Cybersecurity demand surge\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition in CDN market\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion initiatives\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic growth impact on IT spend\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Edge computing innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Acquisition integration risks\",\n \"impact\": \"LOW\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Balance sheet flexibility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Valuation multiple contraction\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Intensifying competition from cloud providers\",\n \"Slower than expected revenue growth\",\n \"Margin compression from pricing pressure\",\n \"Macroeconomic downturn affecting customer budgets\",\n \"Integration challenges from M&A activity\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.075,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.17,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 15\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 95,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Revenue growth stalls below 5% with margin erosion.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 132,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Achieves 8% CAGR and margin targets with stable multiples.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 165,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated security growth exceeds 12% CAGR with expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT target, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT multiple plus peer comps review. 12M target implies ~14% upside consistent with BUY. not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Valuation Model", "risks": [ "Intensifying competition from cloud providers", "Slower than expected revenue growth", "Margin compression from pricing pressure", "Macroeconomic downturn affecting customer budgets", "Integration challenges from M&A activity" ], "ticker": "AKAM", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Achieves 8% CAGR and margin targets with stable multiples.", "target_price": 132 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Revenue growth stalls below 5% with margin erosion.", "target_price": 95 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated security growth exceeds 12% CAGR with expansion.", "target_price": 165 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.075, "terminal_multiple": 15, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Cybersecurity demand surge", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition in CDN market", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion initiatives", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic growth impact on IT spend", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Edge computing innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Acquisition integration risks", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Balance sheet flexibility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Valuation multiple contraction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF using revenue CAGR, EBIT target, WACC and terminal EV/EBIT multiple plus peer comps review. 12M target implies ~14% upside consistent with BUY. not investment advice.", "current_price": 116, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Rising cyber threats boost security solutions demand.", "Core CDN business faces pricing pressure from hyperscalers.", "Strong FCF generation funds innovation and buybacks.", "Operating margins expected to expand to 17% target.", "19x forward P/E appears reasonable given growth outlook." ], "target_price_6m": 124, "target_price_12m": 132 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "ef2bb187-518c-9d96-aa3b-aadaa4c093d9", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 23072, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:19:37.631Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2669, "outputTokens": 3542, "costUsd": 0.061137 } } ] } }