{ "run": { "id": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr0l3uh01osp658jfjxqh6d", "ticker": "AES", "snapshotId": "cmnr0l3vv01oup658n9jctb1o", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr0l3vv01oup658n9jctb1o", "assetId": "cmnr0l3uh01osp658jfjxqh6d", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "open": null, "price": 14.4, "dayLow": 14.35, "volume": 6515394, "dayHigh": 14.46, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 14.43, "week52Low": 9.46, "week52High": 17.65 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 52.027027027027, "beta": 1.11256511709647, "epsTTM": 0.37, "fcfTTM": -5013000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.4705882352941176, "revenueYoy": -0.003665092034533312 }, "sector": "Cogeneration Services & Small Power Producers", "margins": { "net": 0.07438894792773645, "gross": 0.1807406196354124, "operating": null }, "website": "http://aes.com", "industry": "Energy", "pegRatio": -0.358505564387917, "ebitdaTTM": 2997000000, "forwardPe": 11.8827160493827, "marketCap": 7490000000, "totalCash": 1382000000, "totalDebt": 22981000000, "debtEquity": 7.42845659163987, "quickRatio": 0.3814178049929345, "revenueTTM": 12233000000, "companyName": "AES CORP", "priceToBook": 1.72885622231172, "currentRatio": 0.7656617993405558, "dividendYield": 0.0348649855376313, "returnOnAssets": 0.01757842682738371, "returnOnEquity": 0.10008038585209, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "The AES Corporation is an American utility and power generation company. It owns and operates power plants, which it uses to generate and sell electricity to end users and intermediaries like utilities and industrial facilities. AES, headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, is one of the world's leading power companies, generating and distributing electric power in 15 countries and employing 10,500 people worldwide. AES Corporation is a global Fortune 500 power company.", "enterpriseValue": 29934250000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 8336, "sharesOutstanding": 712558860, "enterpriseToEbitda": 9.988071404738072, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 2.447008092863566, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4306000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.403Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr0l3w801oyp658gyvgch9f", "runId": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"ai-equity-research-v1\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AES\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":14.4,\"target_price_6m\":15.4,\"target_price_12m\":16.2,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.55,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward P/E of ~12x implies substantial earnings recovery ahead\",\"Renewable energy build-out positions AES for secular power demand growth\",\"Dividend yield ~3.5% provides downside support and income\",\"Extreme leverage (D/E 7.4x) poses material refinancing and rate risk\",\"Deeply negative FCF (-$5B) reflects heavy capex with uncertain payback\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Forward earnings recovery from TTM EPS $0.37 to implied ~$1.21\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"AI/data center electricity demand driving long-term power consumption growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewable energy portfolio expansion and contracted backlog\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Extremely high debt load ($23B) vs $7.5B market cap\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Negative free cash flow from aggressive capital spending\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest rate sensitivity given leverage profile\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend sustainability concerns if FCF remains negative\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Global diversification across 15 countries provides revenue stability\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS declined 47% YoY, creating low earnings base for comparisons\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Refinancing risk on $23B debt if credit conditions tighten\",\"Prolonged negative FCF could force dividend cut or equity dilution\",\"Execution risk on large-scale renewable project pipeline\",\"Emerging market currency and regulatory exposure across 15 countries\",\"Rising interest rates could compress utility multiples further\",\"Potential project delays or cost overruns on renewable buildout\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.045,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.15,\"wacc\":0.085,\"terminal_multiple\":10.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":10.5,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Earnings miss, credit downgrade or dividend cut forces derating to 8-9x forward earnings.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":16.2,\"prob\":0.50,\"notes\":\"Forward EPS ~$1.21 materializes; multiple stabilizes at 13x with dividend support.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":20.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Strong data center demand, successful deleverage, multiple re-rates to 16x forward EPS.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Valuation anchored on forward P/E (~12x snapshot-implied forward EPS ~$1.21) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA ~10x. Base target = 13.4x forward EPS + 3.5% dividend yield. High leverage (D/E 7.4x) and negative FCF cap confidence. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$15.7, consistent with 12M target ~$16.2 (~+12.5% return ā†’ BUY). Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric input. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "ai-equity-research-v1", "risks": [ "Refinancing risk on $23B debt if credit conditions tighten", "Prolonged negative FCF could force dividend cut or equity dilution", "Execution risk on large-scale renewable project pipeline", "Emerging market currency and regulatory exposure across 15 countries", "Rising interest rates could compress utility multiples further", "Potential project delays or cost overruns on renewable buildout" ], "ticker": "AES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Forward EPS ~$1.21 materializes; multiple stabilizes at 13x with dividend support.", "target_price": 16.2 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Earnings miss, credit downgrade or dividend cut forces derating to 8-9x forward earnings.", "target_price": 10.5 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Strong data center demand, successful deleverage, multiple re-rates to 16x forward EPS.", "target_price": 20 } }, "confidence": 0.55, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.045, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Forward earnings recovery from TTM EPS $0.37 to implied ~$1.21", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "AI/data center electricity demand driving long-term power consumption growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewable energy portfolio expansion and contracted backlog", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Extremely high debt load ($23B) vs $7.5B market cap", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Negative free cash flow from aggressive capital spending", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest rate sensitivity given leverage profile", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend sustainability concerns if FCF remains negative", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Global diversification across 15 countries provides revenue stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS declined 47% YoY, creating low earnings base for comparisons", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation anchored on forward P/E (~12x snapshot-implied forward EPS ~$1.21) cross-checked with EV/EBITDA ~10x. Base target = 13.4x forward EPS + 3.5% dividend yield. High leverage (D/E 7.4x) and negative FCF cap confidence. Probability-weighted scenario value ~$15.7, consistent with 12M target ~$16.2 (~+12.5% return ā†’ BUY). Sell-side targets noted but not used as numeric input. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 14.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward P/E of ~12x implies substantial earnings recovery ahead", "Renewable energy build-out positions AES for secular power demand growth", "Dividend yield ~3.5% provides downside support and income", "Extreme leverage (D/E 7.4x) poses material refinancing and rate risk", "Deeply negative FCF (-$5B) reflects heavy capex with uncertain payback" ], "target_price_6m": 15.4, "target_price_12m": 16.2 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 68577, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3607, "outputTokens": 1808, "costUsd": 0.063235 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l3w801p1p6584mjs00mj", "runId": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Discounted Cash Flow\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 14.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 14.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 15.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Renewable energy transition supports long-term growth.\",\n \"High leverage increases financial risk and cost of capital.\",\n \"Stable utility cash flows provide downside protection.\",\n \"Margin expansion possible through operational efficiencies.\",\n \"Current valuation near fair value based on DCF.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Renewable energy investments\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt reduction efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory support for clean energy\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Commodity price volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Execution on growth projects\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition in energy sector\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"High debt levels leading to credit risk.\",\n \"Delays in renewable project execution.\",\n \"Adverse regulatory changes.\",\n \"Economic downturn reducing energy demand.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.02,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.1,\n \"wacc\": 0.06,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\"target_price\": 12.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Debt crisis and project delays.\"},\n \"base\": {\"target_price\": 15.0, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady execution and modest growth.\"},\n \"bull\": {\"target_price\": 18.0, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Strong renewable adoption and cost savings.\"}\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF valuation with growth and margin assumptions. HOLD due to 4.2% expected return and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "Discounted Cash Flow", "risks": [ "High debt levels leading to credit risk.", "Delays in renewable project execution.", "Adverse regulatory changes.", "Economic downturn reducing energy demand." ], "ticker": "AES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady execution and modest growth.", "target_price": 15 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Debt crisis and project delays.", "target_price": 12 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Strong renewable adoption and cost savings.", "target_price": 18 } }, "confidence": 0.6, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.06, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.02, "terminal_multiple": 10, "ebit_margin_target": 0.1 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Renewable energy investments", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Debt reduction efforts", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory support for clean energy", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Commodity price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Execution on growth projects", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition in energy sector", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF valuation with growth and margin assumptions. HOLD due to 4.2% expected return and mixed evidence. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 14.4, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Renewable energy transition supports long-term growth.", "High leverage increases financial risk and cost of capital.", "Stable utility cash flows provide downside protection.", "Margin expansion possible through operational efficiencies.", "Current valuation near fair value based on DCF." ], "target_price_6m": 14.8, "target_price_12m": 15 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: hold_scenario_return_too_directional: HOLD requires probability-weighted scenario return within +/-6%.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"Discounted Cash Flow\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 14.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 14.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 15.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.6,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Renewable energy transition supports long-term growth.\",\n \"High leverage increases financial risk and cost of capital.\",\n \"Stable utility cash flows provide downside protection.\",\n \"Margin expansion possible through operational efficiencies.\",\n \"Current valuation near fair value based on DCF.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\"driver\": \"Renewable energy investments\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Debt reduction efforts\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Regulatory support for clean energy\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Commodity price volatility\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Execution on growth projects\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\"},\n {\"driver\": \"Competition in energy sector\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"NEG\"}\n ],ā€¦" } ], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 360, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2765, "outputTokens": 3053, "costUsd": 0.002056 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l3w801ozp658wx481axd", "runId": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AES_Equity_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 14.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 15.2,\n \"target_price_12m\": 16.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Transition to renewables drives long-term growth but requires heavy near-term capital expenditure.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 11.9x presents an attractive valuation relative to historical utility averages.\",\n \"High debt load of $23B creates significant interest rate sensitivity and balance sheet risk.\",\n \"Strong operating cash flow of $4.3B supports the current 3.5% dividend yield.\",\n \"Emerging market exposure adds FX and regulatory risks but offers higher growth potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable capacity additions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Emerging market FX fluctuations\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Asset sales and capital recycling\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Energy storage deployments\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged high interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.\",\n \"Supply chain delays impacting renewable project timelines.\",\n \"Regulatory and political instability in Latin American markets.\",\n \"Execution risks associated with massive capital expenditure programs.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.03,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.18,\n \"wacc\": 0.075,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 10.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 12.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Execution delays and higher rates compress margins and slow renewable transition.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 16.0,\n \"prob\": 0.5,\n \"notes\": \"Steady execution of renewable pipeline and stable regulatory environment.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 20.0,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated renewable deployments and favorable rate environment drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"Valuation based on a blend of EV/EBITDA multiples and DCF. The probability-weighted scenario target implies an 11% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AES_Equity_Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged high interest rates increasing debt servicing costs.", "Supply chain delays impacting renewable project timelines.", "Regulatory and political instability in Latin American markets.", "Execution risks associated with massive capital expenditure programs." ], "ticker": "AES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Steady execution of renewable pipeline and stable regulatory environment.", "target_price": 16 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Execution delays and higher rates compress margins and slow renewable transition.", "target_price": 12 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Accelerated renewable deployments and favorable rate environment drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 20 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.075, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 10.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.18 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Renewable capacity additions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Interest rate environment", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) pricing", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Emerging market FX fluctuations", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Asset sales and capital recycling", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Energy storage deployments", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Valuation based on a blend of EV/EBITDA multiples and DCF. The probability-weighted scenario target implies an 11% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 14.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Transition to renewables drives long-term growth but requires heavy near-term capital expenditure.", "Forward P/E of 11.9x presents an attractive valuation relative to historical utility averages.", "High debt load of $23B creates significant interest rate sensitivity and balance sheet risk.", "Strong operating cash flow of $4.3B supports the current 3.5% dividend yield.", "Emerging market exposure adds FX and regulatory risks but offers higher growth potential." ], "target_price_6m": 15.2, "target_price_12m": 16 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [ { "error": "sanity_error: buy_scenario_return_too_low: BUY requires >= 6% return from probability-weighted scenarios.", "attempt": 0, "rawOutputTruncated": "{\n \"model\": \"AES_Equity_Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 14.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 15.2,\n \"target_price_12m\": 16.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Transition to renewables drives long-term growth but requires heavy near-term capital expenditure.\",\n \"Forward P/E of 11.9x presents an attractive valuation relative to historical utility averages.\",\n \"High debt load of $23B creates significant interest rate sensitivity and balance sheet risk.\",\n \"Strong operating cash flow of $4.3B supports the current 3.5% dividend yield.\",\n \"Emerging market exposure adds FX and regulatory risks but offers higher growth potential.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewable capacity additions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Interest rate environment\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) pricing\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Emerging market FX fluctuations\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"dā€¦" } ], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 11327, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3163, "outputTokens": 796, "costUsd": 0.015878 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l3w801oxp658rv7bojo5", "runId": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"gpt-5\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"AES\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":14.4,\"target_price_6m\":14.9,\"target_price_12m\":15.2,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Forward earnings recovery supports valuation versus depressed trailing EPS.\",\"Contracted utility-like cash flows and 3.5% yield limit downside.\",\"Renewables and grid investments can expand rate base and EBITDA.\",\"Leverage, weak liquidity, and negative FCF constrain equity upside.\",\"At ~10x EV/EBITDA, shares look near fair value versus risks.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Earnings normalization\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Renewables project execution\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Contracted cash flows\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Dividend yield support\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"High leverage\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Interest expense burden\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Capex-driven negative FCF\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Merchant power volatility\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Project delays or cost overruns\",\"Higher-for-longer rates pressure financing\",\"Regulatory or contract reset risk\",\"Commodity and weather volatility\",\"Emerging-market currency or political exposure\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.03,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.15,\"wacc\":0.082,\"terminal_multiple\":10.2},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":11.8,\"prob\":0.3,\"notes\":\"Rate cuts disappoint and project execution slips, keeping leverage concerns elevated.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":15.2,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate earnings recovery and steady contracted growth offset financing pressure.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":18.7,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Faster renewables execution and lower funding costs drive multiple expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. Valuation blends normalized forward earnings, EV/EBITDA and dividend support; no sell-side targets used. HOLD fits mixed evidence and 12M upside below 6%; not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "gpt-5", "risks": [ "Project delays or cost overruns", "Higher-for-longer rates pressure financing", "Regulatory or contract reset risk", "Commodity and weather volatility", "Emerging-market currency or political exposure" ], "ticker": "AES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate earnings recovery and steady contracted growth offset financing pressure.", "target_price": 15.2 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.3, "notes": "Rate cuts disappoint and project execution slips, keeping leverage concerns elevated.", "target_price": 11.8 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Faster renewables execution and lower funding costs drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 18.7 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.082, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.03, "terminal_multiple": 10.2, "ebit_margin_target": 0.15 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Earnings normalization", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Renewables project execution", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Contracted cash flows", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Dividend yield support", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "High leverage", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Interest expense burden", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Capex-driven negative FCF", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Merchant power volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Snapshot quote/fundamentals kept authoritative. Valuation blends normalized forward earnings, EV/EBITDA and dividend support; no sell-side targets used. HOLD fits mixed evidence and 12M upside below 6%; not investment advice.", "current_price": 14.4, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Forward earnings recovery supports valuation versus depressed trailing EPS.", "Contracted utility-like cash flows and 3.5% yield limit downside.", "Renewables and grid investments can expand rate base and EBITDA.", "Leverage, weak liquidity, and negative FCF constrain equity upside.", "At ~10x EV/EBITDA, shares look near fair value versus risks." ], "target_price_6m": 14.9, "target_price_12m": 15.2 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_07698257658c38e70069d73529b5fc8196a941d2fa5aad8d7c", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 28997, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2384, "outputTokens": 1830, "costUsd": 0.029792 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l3w801p0p658wf5v6umt", "runId": "cmnr0l3w501owp658njkkhbws", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AES Integrated DCF Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"AES\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 14.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 14.8,\n \"target_price_12m\": 15.2,\n \"recommendation\": \"HOLD\",\n \"confidence\": 0.59,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Advancing renewables shift with heavy capex spend\",\n \"High debt load and negative FCF constrain flexibility\",\n \"Forward P/E of 11.9x looks reasonable versus peers\",\n \"3.5% dividend yield offers support for holders\",\n \"Emerging market exposure adds FX and policy risks\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Renewables capacity additions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Elevated debt servicing costs\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Data center power demand growth\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International regulatory risks\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"FCF recovery trajectory\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Power price volatility\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Dividend payout stability\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Progress on debt reduction\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Prolonged negative FCF needing external capital\",\n \"Rising rates inflating interest expenses\",\n \"Political risks in LatAm operations\",\n \"Project delays in clean energy buildout\",\n \"Regulatory changes capping returns\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.04,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.17,\n \"wacc\": 0.085,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 11.5\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 10.8,\n \"prob\": 0.35,\n \"notes\": \"Higher rates and execution misses erode cash flows.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 15.2,\n \"prob\": 0.45,\n \"notes\": \"Steady renewables ramp and gradual FCF normalization.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 19.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated demand and faster deleveraging re-rate multiple.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3yr DCF to terminal EV/EBITDA with stated assumptions; balances renewable growth against leverage. Modest upside and mixed evidence support HOLD. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:03.000Z", "model": "AES Integrated DCF Model", "risks": [ "Prolonged negative FCF needing external capital", "Rising rates inflating interest expenses", "Political risks in LatAm operations", "Project delays in clean energy buildout", "Regulatory changes capping returns" ], "ticker": "AES", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.45, "notes": "Steady renewables ramp and gradual FCF normalization.", "target_price": 15.2 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.35, "notes": "Higher rates and execution misses erode cash flows.", "target_price": 10.8 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated demand and faster deleveraging re-rate multiple.", "target_price": 19 } }, "confidence": 0.59, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.085, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.04, "terminal_multiple": 11.5, "ebit_margin_target": 0.17 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Renewables capacity additions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Elevated debt servicing costs", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Data center power demand growth", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International regulatory risks", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "FCF recovery trajectory", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Power price volatility", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Dividend payout stability", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Progress on debt reduction", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "3yr DCF to terminal EV/EBITDA with stated assumptions; balances renewable growth against leverage. Modest upside and mixed evidence support HOLD. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 14.4, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Advancing renewables shift with heavy capex spend", "High debt load and negative FCF constrain flexibility", "Forward P/E of 11.9x looks reasonable versus peers", "3.5% dividend yield offers support for holders", "Emerging market exposure adds FX and policy risks" ], "target_price_6m": 14.8, "target_price_12m": 15.2 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "38c14005-c2ba-95a1-8cfc-061ef06242d5", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 21495, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:15.411Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2723, "outputTokens": 3945, "costUsd": 0.067344 } } ] } }