{ "run": { "id": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "region": "US", "assetId": "cmnr0l2ku01kwp658elym5yj8", "ticker": "ABNB", "snapshotId": "cmnr0l2l801kyp658izz36b2y", "promptTemplateId": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "promptTemplate": { "id": "cmnqt07si0005lm3jzpxuu1ux", "name": "Oficial 08.apr.2026", "version": 1 }, "snapshot": { "id": "cmnr0l2l801kyp658izz36b2y", "assetId": "cmnr0l2ku01kwp658elym5yj8", "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "snapshot": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "quote": { "asOf": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "open": null, "price": 131.4, "dayLow": 130.49, "volume": 3749089, "dayHigh": 134.26, "currency": "USD", "prevClose": 124.97, "week52Low": 104.15, "week52High": 143.88 }, "fundamentals": { "pe": 33.1024390243902, "beta": 1.48720313542633, "epsTTM": 4.1, "fcfTTM": 4669000000, "growth": { "epsYoy": -0.02147971360381879, "revenueYoy": 0.1025941271842911 }, "sector": "Services-To Dwellings & Other Buildings", "margins": { "net": 0.2051302998121068, "gross": null, "operating": 0.207826157993628 }, "website": "https://www.airbnb.com/", "industry": "Lodging", "pegRatio": -15.4110243902437, "ebitdaTTM": 2760000000, "forwardPe": 28.6329113924051, "marketCap": 56200000000, "totalCash": 6560000000, "totalDebt": 1999000000, "debtEquity": 0.243810220758629, "quickRatio": 0.8069455637775661, "revenueTTM": 12241000000, "companyName": "Airbnb, Inc.", "priceToBook": 10.1471350164654, "currentRatio": 1.377170488680489, "dividendYield": null, "returnOnAssets": 0.1130673631123919, "returnOnEquity": 0.306256860592755, "analystOpinions": null, "businessSummary": "Airbnb, Inc. (/ˌɛərbiːɛnˈbiː/ AIR-bee-en-BEE, an abbreviation of its original name, \"Airbed and Breakfast\") is an American company operating an online marketplace for short-and-long-term homestays, experiences and services in various countries and regions. It acts as a broker and charges a commission from each booking. Airbnb was founded in 2008 by Brian Chesky, Nathan Blecharczyk, and Joe Gebbia.", "enterpriseValue": 78635360000, "analystTargetLow": null, "analystTargetHigh": null, "analystTargetMean": null, "fullTimeEmployees": 8200, "sharesOutstanding": null, "enterpriseToEbitda": 28.49107246376812, "analystTargetMedian": null, "enterpriseToRevenue": 6.423932685238134, "operatingCashflowTTM": 4646000000, "analystRecommendationKey": null } }, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.724Z" }, "results": [ { "id": "cmnr0l2lo01l2p6580j90n4vp", "runId": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "modelId": "anthropic", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"claude-sonnet-4-20250514\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ABNB\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":131.4,\"target_price_6m\":137.0,\"target_price_12m\":142.0,\"recommendation\":\"BUY\",\"confidence\":0.58,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Strong FCF generation at $4.7B supports premium valuation\",\"Revenue growing 10% YoY but EPS declining 2% signals margin pressure\",\"Net cash position of ~$4.6B provides strategic flexibility\",\"EV/EBITDA of 28.5x is rich for decelerating growth profile\",\"Platform network effects and brand moat remain durable competitive advantages\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Global travel demand normalization post-pandemic\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Revenue growth deceleration toward high-single-digits\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"FCF conversion efficiency well above net income\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Operating margin expansion potential from platform scale\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Regulatory headwinds in key urban markets\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"New product categories (Experiences, Icons) driving incremental GBV\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"EPS decline despite revenue growth raises cost concerns\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Share buyback program supporting per-share metrics\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"}],\"risks\":[\"Regulatory restrictions on short-term rentals in major cities\",\"Macro slowdown reducing discretionary travel spending\",\"Multiple compression if growth decelerates further below 10%\",\"Increased competition from Booking.com and Vrbo\",\"Rising host acquisition costs and platform investment pressuring margins\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.11,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.24,\"wacc\":0.105,\"terminal_multiple\":22.0},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":105.0,\"prob\":0.2,\"notes\":\"Macro recession compresses travel demand and multiples to ~20x EV/EBITDA.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":142.0,\"prob\":0.55,\"notes\":\"Steady ~10-11% revenue growth with modest margin expansion supports mid-single-digit re-rating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":175.0,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"New product traction accelerates growth to 14%+ with operating leverage driving margin expansion.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield valuation. Base assumes 11% revenue CAGR, gradual margin expansion to 24% EBIT, and 22x forward EV/EBITDA (slight compression from 28.5x). FCF yield of ~8.3% on market cap is attractive but offset by EPS decline and high P/E vs growth. Prob-weighted scenario target ~$142.6 aligns with base. Confidence moderate due to mixed signals: strong cash generation but declining EPS and rich multiples. Not investment advice.\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "claude-sonnet-4-20250514", "risks": [ "Regulatory restrictions on short-term rentals in major cities", "Macro slowdown reducing discretionary travel spending", "Multiple compression if growth decelerates further below 10%", "Increased competition from Booking.com and Vrbo", "Rising host acquisition costs and platform investment pressuring margins" ], "ticker": "ABNB", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady ~10-11% revenue growth with modest margin expansion supports mid-single-digit re-rating.", "target_price": 142 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro recession compresses travel demand and multiples to ~20x EV/EBITDA.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "New product traction accelerates growth to 14%+ with operating leverage driving margin expansion.", "target_price": 175 } }, "confidence": 0.58, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.105, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 22, "ebit_margin_target": 0.24 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global travel demand normalization post-pandemic", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Revenue growth deceleration toward high-single-digits", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "FCF conversion efficiency well above net income", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Operating margin expansion potential from platform scale", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory headwinds in key urban markets", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New product categories (Experiences, Icons) driving incremental GBV", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "EPS decline despite revenue growth raises cost concerns", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Share buyback program supporting per-share metrics", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "Blended EV/EBITDA and FCF yield valuation. Base assumes 11% revenue CAGR, gradual margin expansion to 24% EBIT, and 22x forward EV/EBITDA (slight compression from 28.5x). FCF yield of ~8.3% on market cap is attractive but offset by EPS decline and high P/E vs growth. Prob-weighted scenario target ~$142.6 aligns with base. Confidence moderate due to mixed signals: strong cash generation but declining EPS and rich multiples. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Strong FCF generation at $4.7B supports premium valuation", "Revenue growing 10% YoY but EPS declining 2% signals margin pressure", "Net cash position of ~$4.6B provides strategic flexibility", "EV/EBITDA of 28.5x is rich for decelerating growth profile", "Platform network effects and brand moat remain durable competitive advantages" ], "target_price_6m": 137, "target_price_12m": 142 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "anthropic", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "maxToolCalls": 2, "disabledReason": null }, "pauseTurns": 0, "stopReason": "end_turn" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 72359, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 3632, "outputTokens": 1955, "costUsd": 0.067035 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l2lo01l5p658y0agni9b", "runId": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "modelId": "deepseek.reasoner", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"AI Equity Research Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ABNB\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 138,\n \"target_price_12m\": 145,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Revenue growth driven by international expansion.\",\n \"High operating margins and strong cash flow.\",\n \"Valuation elevated but supported by leadership.\",\n \"Regulatory risks and competition from hotels.\",\n \"Potential for margin expansion through efficiency.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n { \"driver\": \"Global travel recovery\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Regulatory scrutiny\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Market share gains\", \"impact\": \"HIGH\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Economic downturn risk\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Technology platform efficiency\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Competition from Booking.com\", \"impact\": \"MED\", \"direction\": \"NEG\" },\n { \"driver\": \"Host and guest trust\", \"impact\": \"LOW\", \"direction\": \"POS\" }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Increased regulation on short-term rentals.\",\n \"Economic recession reducing travel demand.\",\n \"Cybersecurity threats and data breaches.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.09,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.21,\n \"wacc\": 0.09,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 25\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": { \"target_price\": 110, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Regulatory pressures and economic slowdown.\" },\n \"base\": { \"target_price\": 145, \"prob\": 0.6, \"notes\": \"Steady growth and market share gains.\" },\n \"bull\": { \"target_price\": 170, \"prob\": 0.2, \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption and margin expansion.\" }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF with assumed growth and margins. BUY due to ~10% upside balanced with risks. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "AI Equity Research Model", "risks": [ "Increased regulation on short-term rentals.", "Economic recession reducing travel demand.", "Cybersecurity threats and data breaches." ], "ticker": "ABNB", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady growth and market share gains.", "target_price": 145 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Regulatory pressures and economic slowdown.", "target_price": 110 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated adoption and margin expansion.", "target_price": 170 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.09, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.09, "terminal_multiple": 25, "ebit_margin_target": 0.21 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global travel recovery", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory scrutiny", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Market share gains", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic downturn risk", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Technology platform efficiency", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition from Booking.com", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Host and guest trust", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "DCF with assumed growth and margins. BUY due to ~10% upside balanced with risks. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Revenue growth driven by international expansion.", "High operating margins and strong cash flow.", "Valuation elevated but supported by leadership.", "Regulatory risks and competition from hotels.", "Potential for margin expansion through efficiency." ], "target_price_6m": 138, "target_price_12m": 145 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "endpoint": "https://api.deepseek.com/v1/chat/completions", "provider": "deepseek", "webSearch": { "enabled": false, "supported": false }, "responseFormat": "json_object" }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 361, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2125, "outputTokens": 3732, "costUsd": 0.002162 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l2lo01l3p658hi8rcpnc", "runId": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "modelId": "gemini.3-pro", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"EquityResearch_ABNB\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ABNB\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 138.0,\n \"target_price_12m\": 145.0,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.65,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Asset-light model generates massive FCF, supporting aggressive share repurchases and downside protection.\",\n \"Revenue growth is moderating to ~10%, requiring new growth vectors beyond core short-term rentals.\",\n \"Regulatory pressures in key urban markets remain a persistent headwind to supply growth.\",\n \"High ROE (30.6%) and strong net cash position provide significant capital allocation flexibility.\",\n \"Valuation at ~28x forward P/E is fair, balancing strong margins against slowing top-line momentum.\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Nights and Experiences Booked\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Average Daily Rates (ADR)\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Urban Regulatory Restrictions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Take Rate Expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Macroeconomic Travel Demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Share Repurchase Program\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Hotel Industry Competition\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Strict short-term rental bans in major tourist hubs like NYC and Barcelona.\",\n \"Consumer spending downturn reducing discretionary travel budgets.\",\n \"Increased competition from traditional hotels and OTAs like Booking.com.\",\n \"ADR normalization compressing gross booking value growth.\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.11,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.22,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 20.0\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Macro slowdown hits travel spend and regulatory crackdowns hurt supply, compressing ADRs.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 145.0,\n \"prob\": 0.6,\n \"notes\": \"Steady travel demand, moderate ADR growth, and stable margins support low double-digit upside.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 170.0,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Reacceleration in nights booked and successful expansion into new services drive multiple expansion.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Assumes 11% 3Y revenue CAGR and 22% EBIT margins. Target price of $145 implies ~10% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "EquityResearch_ABNB", "risks": [ "Strict short-term rental bans in major tourist hubs like NYC and Barcelona.", "Consumer spending downturn reducing discretionary travel budgets.", "Increased competition from traditional hotels and OTAs like Booking.com.", "ADR normalization compressing gross booking value growth." ], "ticker": "ABNB", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.6, "notes": "Steady travel demand, moderate ADR growth, and stable margins support low double-digit upside.", "target_price": 145 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Macro slowdown hits travel spend and regulatory crackdowns hurt supply, compressing ADRs.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Reacceleration in nights booked and successful expansion into new services drive multiple expansion.", "target_price": 170 } }, "confidence": 0.65, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.11, "terminal_multiple": 20, "ebit_margin_target": 0.22 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Nights and Experiences Booked", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Average Daily Rates (ADR)", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Urban Regulatory Restrictions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Take Rate Expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Macroeconomic Travel Demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Share Repurchase Program", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Hotel Industry Competition", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "DCF and P/E multiple valuation. Assumes 11% 3Y revenue CAGR and 22% EBIT margins. Target price of $145 implies ~10% upside, supporting a BUY rating. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Asset-light model generates massive FCF, supporting aggressive share repurchases and downside protection.", "Revenue growth is moderating to ~10%, requiring new growth vectors beyond core short-term rentals.", "Regulatory pressures in key urban markets remain a persistent headwind to supply growth.", "High ROE (30.6%) and strong net cash position provide significant capital allocation flexibility.", "Valuation at ~28x forward P/E is fair, balancing strong margins against slowing top-line momentum." ], "target_price_6m": 138, "target_price_12m": 145 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "model": "gemini-3-pro-preview", "provider": "gemini", "webSearch": { "used": false, "allowed": false, "enabled": false, "requested": false, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 19122, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2458, "outputTokens": 872, "costUsd": 0.01538 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l2lo01l1p658kcjaxujs", "runId": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "modelId": "openai.gpt-5.4", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\"model\":\"OpenAI Equity Model v2\",\"as_of\":\"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\"ticker\":\"ABNB\",\"currency\":\"USD\",\"current_price\":131.4,\"target_price_6m\":135.5,\"target_price_12m\":138,\"recommendation\":\"HOLD\",\"confidence\":0.62,\"thesis_bullets\":[\"Marketplace network and brand support durable travel demand and host supply.\",\"Double-digit revenue growth persists, but pace has normalized after the rebound.\",\"High margins and net cash provide resilience and buyback capacity.\",\"Current valuation already reflects much of the margin and cash-generation strength.\",\"Regulation and softer discretionary spending limit near-term upside.\"],\"key_drivers\":[{\"driver\":\"Nights booked growth\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Host supply expansion\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"ADR normalization\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Marketing efficiency\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Experiences monetization\",\"impact\":\"LOW\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"Urban regulation\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"},{\"driver\":\"Consumer travel demand\",\"impact\":\"HIGH\",\"direction\":\"POS\"},{\"driver\":\"FX and cross-border mix\",\"impact\":\"MED\",\"direction\":\"NEG\"}],\"risks\":[\"Short-term rental regulation tightens.\",\"Travel demand weakens in recession.\",\"Competition pressures take rates or marketing spend.\",\"FX volatility reduces reported growth.\",\"Execution risk in newer services.\"],\"assumptions\":{\"revenue_cagr_3y\":0.1,\"ebit_margin_target\":0.23,\"wacc\":0.095,\"terminal_multiple\":24},\"scenarios\":{\"bear\":{\"target_price\":108,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"Demand softens and regulation restrains supply in major markets.\"},\"base\":{\"target_price\":138,\"prob\":0.5,\"notes\":\"Moderate bookings growth and steady margins support limited rerating.\"},\"bull\":{\"target_price\":165,\"prob\":0.25,\"notes\":\"International expansion and new offerings accelerate growth with better margins.\"}},\"method_notes\":\"Blended earnings-power and FCF-yield approach using snapshot fundamentals; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot EV appears inconsistent versus market cap/net cash, so EV-based valuation was de-emphasized. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside and mixed evidence. not investment advice\"}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "OpenAI Equity Model v2", "risks": [ "Short-term rental regulation tightens.", "Travel demand weakens in recession.", "Competition pressures take rates or marketing spend.", "FX volatility reduces reported growth.", "Execution risk in newer services." ], "ticker": "ABNB", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.5, "notes": "Moderate bookings growth and steady margins support limited rerating.", "target_price": 138 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Demand softens and regulation restrains supply in major markets.", "target_price": 108 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "International expansion and new offerings accelerate growth with better margins.", "target_price": 165 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.1, "terminal_multiple": 24, "ebit_margin_target": 0.23 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Nights booked growth", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Host supply expansion", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "ADR normalization", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Marketing efficiency", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Experiences monetization", "impact": "LOW", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Urban regulation", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Consumer travel demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "FX and cross-border mix", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" } ], "method_notes": "Blended earnings-power and FCF-yield approach using snapshot fundamentals; no sell-side targets used. Snapshot EV appears inconsistent versus market cap/net cash, so EV-based valuation was de-emphasized. HOLD fits ~5% 12M upside and mixed evidence. not investment advice", "current_price": 131.4, "recommendation": "HOLD", "thesis_bullets": [ "Marketplace network and brand support durable travel demand and host supply.", "Double-digit revenue growth persists, but pace has normalized after the rebound.", "High margins and net cash provide resilience and buyback capacity.", "Current valuation already reflects much of the margin and cash-generation strength.", "Regulation and softer discretionary spending limit near-term upside." ], "target_price_6m": 135.5, "target_price_12m": 138 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "openai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "resp_09d7ac1f694af1fc0069d734d0504081959bffb1d5932cfda3", "reasoningEffort": "medium", "structuredOutputs": { "used": true, "requested": true, "disabledReason": null } }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 30616, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2396, "outputTokens": 1880, "costUsd": 0.030513 } }, { "id": "cmnr0l2lo01l4p6581vj3rn1g", "runId": "cmnr0l2li01l0p658tduypgfd", "modelId": "xai.grok-4.20-reasoning", "status": "SUCCESS", "rawOutput": "{\n \"model\": \"Blended DCF-Comps Model\",\n \"as_of\": \"2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z\",\n \"ticker\": \"ABNB\",\n \"currency\": \"USD\",\n \"current_price\": 131.4,\n \"target_price_6m\": 142,\n \"target_price_12m\": 158,\n \"recommendation\": \"BUY\",\n \"confidence\": 0.62,\n \"thesis_bullets\": [\n \"Network effects sustain pricing power and margins\",\n \"International expansion drives mid-teens revenue CAGR\",\n \"Experiences segment adds diversified growth vector\",\n \"Regulatory pressures constrain supply in key cities\",\n \"Valuation at 29x EBIT leaves room for upside\"\n ],\n \"key_drivers\": [\n {\n \"driver\": \"Global travel demand\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"International market penetration\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Regulatory restrictions\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Margin expansion\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Economic cyclicality\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Network effects\",\n \"impact\": \"HIGH\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"Competition intensity\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"NEG\"\n },\n {\n \"driver\": \"New product innovation\",\n \"impact\": \"MED\",\n \"direction\": \"POS\"\n }\n ],\n \"risks\": [\n \"Tightening short-term rental laws in Europe\",\n \"Recession reducing leisure travel budgets\",\n \"Rising competition from traditional hotels\",\n \"Host supply shortages in key markets\"\n ],\n \"assumptions\": {\n \"revenue_cagr_3y\": 0.14,\n \"ebit_margin_target\": 0.27,\n \"wacc\": 0.095,\n \"terminal_multiple\": 30\n },\n \"scenarios\": {\n \"bear\": {\n \"target_price\": 105,\n \"prob\": 0.25,\n \"notes\": \"Deep recession and broad regulatory bans slow growth.\"\n },\n \"base\": {\n \"target_price\": 158,\n \"prob\": 0.55,\n \"notes\": \"Steady international growth and margin gains continue.\"\n },\n \"bull\": {\n \"target_price\": 195,\n \"prob\": 0.2,\n \"notes\": \"Accelerated adoption and Experiences outperform.\"\n }\n },\n \"method_notes\": \"3-stage DCF using assumed 14% rev CAGR to target 27% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 30x terminal EV/EBIT. Base case implies 20% 12M upside. Not investment advice.\"\n}", "parsedJson": { "as_of": "2026-04-08T20:00:02.000Z", "model": "Blended DCF-Comps Model", "risks": [ "Tightening short-term rental laws in Europe", "Recession reducing leisure travel budgets", "Rising competition from traditional hotels", "Host supply shortages in key markets" ], "ticker": "ABNB", "currency": "USD", "scenarios": { "base": { "prob": 0.55, "notes": "Steady international growth and margin gains continue.", "target_price": 158 }, "bear": { "prob": 0.25, "notes": "Deep recession and broad regulatory bans slow growth.", "target_price": 105 }, "bull": { "prob": 0.2, "notes": "Accelerated adoption and Experiences outperform.", "target_price": 195 } }, "confidence": 0.62, "assumptions": { "wacc": 0.095, "revenue_cagr_3y": 0.14, "terminal_multiple": 30, "ebit_margin_target": 0.27 }, "key_drivers": [ { "driver": "Global travel demand", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "International market penetration", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Regulatory restrictions", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Margin expansion", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Economic cyclicality", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "Network effects", "impact": "HIGH", "direction": "POS" }, { "driver": "Competition intensity", "impact": "MED", "direction": "NEG" }, { "driver": "New product innovation", "impact": "MED", "direction": "POS" } ], "method_notes": "3-stage DCF using assumed 14% rev CAGR to target 27% EBIT margin, 9.5% WACC and 30x terminal EV/EBIT. Base case implies 20% 12M upside. Not investment advice.", "current_price": 131.4, "recommendation": "BUY", "thesis_bullets": [ "Network effects sustain pricing power and margins", "International expansion drives mid-teens revenue CAGR", "Experiences segment adds diversified growth vector", "Regulatory pressures constrain supply in key cities", "Valuation at 29x EBIT leaves room for upside" ], "target_price_6m": 142, "target_price_12m": 158 }, "errorsJson": { "attempts": [], "providerMeta": { "provider": "xai", "webSearch": { "used": false, "enabled": false, "sources": [], "maxToolCalls": 2 }, "responseId": "78d70357-03bc-994e-b6d3-24d39f571b75", "usedFallbackChatCompletions": false }, "sanityIssues": [] }, "latencyMs": 18760, "createdAt": "2026-04-09T05:06:13.732Z", "usage": { "inputTokens": 2736, "outputTokens": 2666, "costUsd": 0.048198 } } ] } }